Thursday, September 11, 2014
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
MARIO RIORDA Y CARLOS GERVASONI EN EL CONGRESO DE DEMOCRACIA EN LA UNR
MARIO RIORDA:
"Mi visión es profesionalista, no tan académica".
"El sistema de partidos está roto en Argentina: existe un hiperpersonalismo multipartidista, Pero está también roto en casi toda América Latina, excepto en cuatro países".
"Sigue habiendo un voto ideológico muy consolidado. El FPV en Pcia. de Bs. As., tiene un 38 a un 42 % de intención de votos allí. Ahora el voto opositor se ha compartimentalizado, a diferencia del año pasado, donde estaba Massa concentrado ese voto".
"Hay volatilidad pero no tanta: si cada 10 años, cambia la percepción respecto al rol del Estado, eso no es volatilidad".
CARLOS GERVASONI:
"En el ambiente académico, pero también periodístico y hasta político, hay mucha reticencia con las encuestas o el famoso no se puede gobernar mirando encuestas". Esto es contradictorio con la otra frase positiva de "interpretar lo que piensa la gente".
"Hay fundamentos para criticarlas pero así como hay autos mal hechos, también hay encuestas mal hechas".
"El cuantitativismo está mal visto hasta en el ambiente universitario católico".
"Las encuestas tampoco resuelven todo: a veces hay que hacer focus, emplear métodos cualis, etc."
"Ta vez sólo nihilistas o postmodernistas podrían negar que todos necesitamos combinar teoría con evidencia".
"Hoy, hay una enorme cantidad de datos de la opinión pública".
"Para colmo, estamos frente a un mundo nuevo porque cruje el sistema de partidos, por lo que las encuestas son herramientas que nos proveen información importante para saber qué está pasando".
"Los politólogos no sabemos qué pasa: no lo entendemos. Compiten Cristina y Cobos contra Lavagna y Morales y así sucesivamente. Zamora y su esposa están con el gobierno nacional pero no están en el FPV. Hay desnacionalización y faccionalización".
"Los políticos que entienden mejor esto, les va mejor, por ejemplo, el PRO, con todos sus aciertos y errores. La CC de Elisa Carrió tuvo una enorme resistencia en cambio y así le fue".
"Mi visión es profesionalista, no tan académica".
"El sistema de partidos está roto en Argentina: existe un hiperpersonalismo multipartidista, Pero está también roto en casi toda América Latina, excepto en cuatro países".
"Sigue habiendo un voto ideológico muy consolidado. El FPV en Pcia. de Bs. As., tiene un 38 a un 42 % de intención de votos allí. Ahora el voto opositor se ha compartimentalizado, a diferencia del año pasado, donde estaba Massa concentrado ese voto".
"Hay volatilidad pero no tanta: si cada 10 años, cambia la percepción respecto al rol del Estado, eso no es volatilidad".
CARLOS GERVASONI:
"En el ambiente académico, pero también periodístico y hasta político, hay mucha reticencia con las encuestas o el famoso no se puede gobernar mirando encuestas". Esto es contradictorio con la otra frase positiva de "interpretar lo que piensa la gente".
"Hay fundamentos para criticarlas pero así como hay autos mal hechos, también hay encuestas mal hechas".
"El cuantitativismo está mal visto hasta en el ambiente universitario católico".
"Las encuestas tampoco resuelven todo: a veces hay que hacer focus, emplear métodos cualis, etc."
"Ta vez sólo nihilistas o postmodernistas podrían negar que todos necesitamos combinar teoría con evidencia".
"Hoy, hay una enorme cantidad de datos de la opinión pública".
"Para colmo, estamos frente a un mundo nuevo porque cruje el sistema de partidos, por lo que las encuestas son herramientas que nos proveen información importante para saber qué está pasando".
"Los politólogos no sabemos qué pasa: no lo entendemos. Compiten Cristina y Cobos contra Lavagna y Morales y así sucesivamente. Zamora y su esposa están con el gobierno nacional pero no están en el FPV. Hay desnacionalización y faccionalización".
"Los políticos que entienden mejor esto, les va mejor, por ejemplo, el PRO, con todos sus aciertos y errores. La CC de Elisa Carrió tuvo una enorme resistencia en cambio y así le fue".
AUMENTA EL "SI" A LA INDEPENDENCIA ESCOCESA, EN LAS ENCUESTAS
Scottish independence: new poll gives no vote six-point lead
Boost for Better Together campaign as poll finds no vote is now at 53%, days after surveys suggested race was neck and neck
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Scottish independence: yes and no supporters during a walkabout in Glasgow by John Prescott and Alistair Darling. Photograph: Jeremy Sutton-Hibbert/Getty Images
A new opinion poll on Scottish independence has found the no vote back in the lead at 53% of voters, suggesting the sudden surge in backing for independence has subsided.
Only days after a spate of polls suggested the referendum race was neck and neck, the Survation poll for the Daily Record has found that the no vote is now at 53%, giving the pro-UK campaign a six point gap over yes.
That is the same margin given by Survation two months ago. Including the 10% of voters still to decide, the survey of 1,000 voters found that 47.6% plan to vote no on 18 September, with 42.4% voting yes.
Earlier this week, a YouGov poll for the Times found that the yes vote was in the lead for the first time by two points but Survation's findings – leaked on Wednesday several hours before they were due to be published – suggest that Scottish public opinion is far more unpredictable.
Sterling rallied to its highest point of the day against the US dollar after the Survation poll was released.
The pound hit $1.6189, up 0.4% on Tuesday night's close, after another day of jittery trading in the City of London.
Earlier in the day sterling had slumped to a new 10-month low of $1.6051, amid speculation that Survation might show the yes campaign closing the gap.
Survation is widely seen as being more favourable to the yes vote, so its latest findings will give comfort to the no campaign after David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg abandoned their normal routines at Westminster to head north to campaign for a no vote.
The Survation poll was carried out from 5 to 9 September, the five day period after the YouGov polling for the Sunday Times that gave yes its first shock lead.
Significantly for Ed Miliband and the Labour party, after YouGov found that a third of their supporters would back independence, Survation finds that only a quarter of Labour voters, at 26%, were planning to vote yes next week.
By comparison, 18.5% of SNP voters were expecting to vote no to independence. Survation's sample suggests that the yes campaign will win comfortably in the west of Scotland, centred on Glasgow, and in central Scotland, but are behind in every other region.
CONGRESO DE DEMOCRACIA (UNR) - MAS COMENTARIOS-
Sobre Venezuela. "La sacralizaciòn del règimen chavista ha llegado a niveles increìbles. Los ojos de Chàvez, nos miran en el metro, estàn en las escuelas, estàn en todos los rincones de nuestras vidas". (Margarita Lòpez Amaya).
Sobre Chile. "No creemos que se produzca en el corto plazo, un realineamiento de la derecha con la Democracia Cristiana en el corto plazo pero a èsta puede resultarle cada vez màs incòmoda su posiciòn dentro de la Nueva Mayorìa de Bachelet si èsta avanza en la radicalidad de sus propuestas de gobierno. La cuestiòn polìtica pasa a ser lìquida" (Docentes investigadores de la USACH).
Sobre Chile. "No creemos que se produzca en el corto plazo, un realineamiento de la derecha con la Democracia Cristiana en el corto plazo pero a èsta puede resultarle cada vez màs incòmoda su posiciòn dentro de la Nueva Mayorìa de Bachelet si èsta avanza en la radicalidad de sus propuestas de gobierno. La cuestiòn polìtica pasa a ser lìquida" (Docentes investigadores de la USACH).
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
CINCO ESTADISTICAS QUE EXPLICAN EL MUNDO DE HOY
5 Stats That Explained the World This Week
The right statistic is often worth a thousand words—and sometimes much more than that. These five weekly data points, put together by Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the risk consultancy Eurasia Group, provide a glimpse into global trends, political dangers and international power dynamics. Some are counterintuitive facts. Others are small stats that tell a big story. This week, Ian looks at everything from airplane premiums to German immigration.
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Hong Kong’s shrinking importance
Last Sunday, the National People’s Congress of China announced a rigorous vetting system for candidates in the 2017 elections for Hong Kong’s top post of Chief Executive that effectively puts the city’s leadership under Beijing’s control—all that despite the fact that in 2012, the Chinese government promised the citizens of Hong Kong that in the next electoral cycle they would enjoy “universal suffrage.” Hong Kong’s citizens may vote freely only for candidates that have been approved by a nominating committee whose composition is nearly as opaque as the Chinese Communist Party’s. But the city’s newsworthy moment obscures its waning importance to the growth-obsessed Chinese government at-large. With mainland China’s growth skyrocketing, Hong Kong now represents only 2.9 percent of the country’s total economy, compared to 15.6 percent in 1997.
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Germany's new immigrants
Germany has soared from eighth in 2009 to second in 2012 on the list of largest immigrant destinations according to the OECD, now trailing only the United States. Because of its aging population and low birthrate, Germany’s concerns about a shrinking labor pool are growing. The government projects that, by 2030, it may have a deficit of as many as 2.3 million workers. As a result, Germany has pushed for more inviting immigration policy, simplifying the process for non-EU immigrants in 2012 and initiating the “Blue Card” system last year that offers entry to those with university degrees and job offers with salaries above $50,000 per year. Now, the average immigrant moving to Germany is more skilled and better educated than his average German counterpart. Immigration to Germany in 2012 was up almost 40 percent from the year before.
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America's debt machine
Over 35 percent of Americans have debts and unpaid bills that have been reported to collection agencies—businesses that pursue outstanding debts for a fee or percentage of what is owed. There are plenty of employees to address this massive group of indebted Americans: the collections industry has 140,000 workers that together recover $50 billion a year.
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Steep airline premiums
The spate of plane crashes that we’ve seen in recent months has primed the airline insurance industry for its most expensive year since the 9/11 disaster inflated costs in 2001. In some instances, airline insurers are demanding threefold increases in premiums for so-called "war insurance" policies, which cover damage to aircraft involved in "hostile acts" and which brokers can cancel with as little as a week's notice. Before this recent surge, airline insurance costs had almost halved over the past five years.
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Ebola's deadly potential
Though the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has infected more than 3,600 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, along with more than 20 in Nigeria, the disease thus far has barely touched the United States. Nebraska Medical Center began treatment of Dr. Rick Sacra this week, the third American infected with the disease, after Americans Nancy Writebol and Dr. Kent Brantly survived the virus with the help of ZMapp, an experimental treatment. Still, even though the United States has hosted no transmissions thus far, some experts warn that because of the ease of international airline travel and Ebola’s average 7-day incubation period, a stateside outbreak could be forthcoming. The United States welcomes between 3,000 and 6,000 passengers per week from Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/09/5-stats-that-explained-the-world-this-week-110638.html#ixzz3CqWkEYQy
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