Wednesday, October 1, 2014

WHO IS JENS STOLTENBERG, THE NEW GENERAL SECRETARY OF NATO

Profile: Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg


Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg (R) with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Oslo, 20 February 2013Jens Stoltenberg (right) with Angela Merkel in Oslo, February 2013
Nato's 13th secretary general, former Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, looks an unlikely choice on several counts: an economist with no defence background, a social democrat who built up good relations with Russia, another Scandinavian hard on the heels of Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
Actually, the veteran social democrat presents a sharp contrast to his predecessor, the conservative former prime minister of Denmark, who could come over as strident and uncompromising about Russia.
There is likely to be concern among some east Europeans that he may be too accommodating towards Russia in the crisis over Ukraine.
Yet those fears may be premature.
He is a politician who will deal flexibly with facts on the ground, whether it is Nato's withdrawal from Afghanistan or conflict in eastern Europe, Harald Stanghelle, a leading Norwegian journalist, told BBC News.
Intriguingly, Mr Stoltenberg is also German Chancellor Angela Merkel's choice to lead the alliance, often regarded as the main instrument for keeping America in Europe.
Coalition politician
Possibly nobody was as surprised as the Norwegians themselves at news that Jens Stoltenberg was taking Europe's top defence job.
Jens Stoltenberg, 9 March 2000 Prime minister at 40
Jens Stoltenberg at the funeral of Breivik victim Monica Elisabeth Boesei at Sunnvolden, Norway, 5 August 2011At the funeral of Breivik victim Monica Elisabeth Boesei, 5 August 2011
A Norwegian soldier in Afghanistan, 10 June 2013A Norwegian soldier in Afghanistan, 10 June 2013
Jens Stoltenberg (right) with Dmitry Medvedev on board the Helmer Hanssen research vessel just outside Kirkenes, Norway, 4 June 2013 With Dmitry Medvedev on board the Helmer Hanssen research vessel just outside Kirkenes, Norway, 4 June 2013
Time was a Stoltenberg as Nato secretary general would have seemed natural - but that was Thorvald, father of Jens. The former defence and foreign minister, now 83, was tipped for the post back in the 1990s.
Following him into the Norwegian Labour Party, his economist son took a different path, becoming minister of industry and energy in 1993 before moving to finance in 1996.
In 2000, aged 40, he became prime minister for the first time. His Labour government lasted less than two years, suffering at the polls for its efforts to reform the welfare state.
When he returned to the post in 2005, it was as head of a coalition with the Socialist Left and Centre parties, which was returned again in 2009.
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Jens Stoltenberg basics
Born 16 March 1959 in Oslo (age 55), studied economics
Veteran member of Norway's Labour Party
Prime minister by 40, served three terms
Fluent English-speaker who grew up partly in Yugoslavia, where his father was Norwegian ambassador
Married to Ingrid Schulerud, with two grown-up children
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The following year, Mr Stoltenberg signed an agreement with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to resolve a decades-long border dispute in the oil- and gas-rich Barents Sea. Relations were improved still further in 2012 with the creation of a visa-free zone along their land border.
Under Mr Stoltenberg, Norway joined the US-led "War on Terror", contributing nearly 600 soldiers to the Nato-led peacekeeping force in Afghanistan, and suffering its share of casualties. All but 57 were recently pulled out, ahead of Nato's full withdrawal this year.
Terrorism from a different quarter came in under the radar on 22 July 2011: Anders Behring Breivik's murderous one-man assault on his government and the Labour Party's youth wing.
Famously, the Norwegian prime minister said the response to the attack must be "more democracy, more openness".
Consensus man
A rather spirited gimmick of posing as cab driver to "hear voters' real concerns" could not save Jens Stoltenberg's government in 2013, when itlost to the centre-right, and the three-term prime minister was out of a job at the age of 54.
"News that he was to become the secretary general of Nato came as a surprise to the political elite and media world in Norway," saysStanghelle, political editor at Aftenposten, Norway's biggest daily.
Jens Stoltenberg (left) with Angela Merkel and David Cameron in Berlin, 7 June 2012Jens Stoltenberg (left) with Angela Merkel and David Cameron at a student forum in Berlin, 7 June 2012
"There had been a lot of discussion of Stoltenberg's future, at the UN perhaps, but there was no mention of Nato at all."
It appears that Mrs Merkel approached the former prime minister with the idea of heading Nato, an idea then endorsed by the Obama administration.
Despite the political differences between the Norwegian social democrat and the German conservative, the two had worked together well.
"She liked Stoltenberg quite a lot," Stefan Kornelius, foreign editor at a leading German daily, Sueddeutsche Zeitung, told BBC News. "He was sort of her favourite social democrat."
In one of his few recent pronouncements about Ukraine, Mr Stoltenberg said last week: "It is Russia that has chosen a more aggressive approach. The result is that we have not been able to follow up on our initial hope of a close and tight partnership."
Jens Stoltenberg (left) with Anders Fogh Rasmussen at the Nato summit in Newport, Wales
But if any common ground is out there, the Norwegian politician is the man to find it, Stanghelle suggests.
"I don't think he has illusions about Russia but I think he will look for possibilities where Rasmussen may not have seen them. He is a consensus person, definitely, and a person who seeks compromises but he is also a very fact-orientated, skilful politician who works hard and looks for solutions.
"Rasmussen was a rash person who was direct in his way of speaking. It would be hard to find two people more different in their way of handling people."
Greater game
It is never quite clear where the German chancellor wants to go with Nato, according to Kornelius, but her pick of Mr Stoltenberg serves several purposes for Germany, the EU's dominant state.
Despite her aversion to military issues, he argues, she is "enough of a realist not to expect the EU to take over substantially on defence".
"Now with Ukraine burning and the eastern members under pressure, she wants to bolster the alliance," he says.
At the same time, "by deciding on a social democrat from Scandinavia, she pre-empted a bit the other personnel decisions which had to be taken after this year's EU elections".
"The Nato job is part of a wider balance-of-interest game among European countries," in which conservatives predominate, according to Kornelius.
What the new head of the European Commission, conservative Brussels insider Jean-Claude Juncker, has in common with Mr Stoltenberg is that both are Merkel allies and both are consensus politicians.

HARSH EDUCATION UNDER ISIS CONTROL AND POWER

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CUMPLEAÑOS DE CHINA, BAJO LA PRESION DE HONG KONG

Las complicadas opciones de Xi Jinping

Pekín ha dejado actuar al Gobierno local frente a los manifestantes, mientras sopesa sus opciones

 Hong Kong  DIARIO EL PAIS, MADRID30 SEP 2014 - 20:38 CEST

El Gobierno chino contempla desde la barrera, por el momento, los acontecimientos en Hong Kong. Le suponen un desafío serio. Son lasmayores manifestaciones prodemocracia en suelo chino desdeTiananmen en 1989 y evocan ecos de las revoluciones árabes de hace tres años, auténtico anatema para el poder central. Hasta el momento Pekín ha dejado que sea el Ejecutivo autónomo que encabeza Leung Chun-Ying el que se desgaste en la respuesta a la campaña de desobediencia civil de los estudiantes y el movimiento Occupy Central. Mientras tanto, estudia sus opciones, todas ellas complicadas.
El movimiento prodemocracia exige la marcha de Leung y una reforma que permita comicios verdaderamente libres. Pero para muchos manifestantes, de lo que se trata sobre todo es de defender el modo de vida y un incipiente sentimiento de identidad como hongkoneses, más marcado entre los más jóvenes. No se sienten chinos y ven con preocupación lo que consideran una presencia cada vez más patente de la China continental y de sus ciudadanos en la excolonia británica. Algunas de las pancartas que muestran los estudiantes lo exponen claramente: “Somos hongkoneses. Somos asiáticos. No somos esa China”.
De momento, el uso de la fuerza parece descartado. La represión policial con gas lacrimógeno y gas pimienta el domingo solo consiguió multiplicar el número de participantes y extender la protesta por todo el centro de Hong Kong. Un uso aún mayor de la violencia está en la mente de muchos manifestantes, pero parece impensable que Pekín esté dispuesto a arriesgarse a ello 25 años después de Tiananmen, en una era de comunicaciones instantáneas y donde las redes sociales actúan como caja de resonancia en cuestión de segundos. Y cuando ha desplegado una estrategia de encanto para ganarse a Taiwán, que mira con mucha atención lo que ocurre en la excolonia.El miércoles, 1 de octubre, será un día clave. Es la fiesta nacional de China, que celebra el 65 aniversario de la fundación de la República Popular. Los organizadores esperan que el número de manifestantes quede muy por encima de los 100.000 que calculan que han participado en las concentraciones estos dos últimos días. Y han emplazado al Gobierno local a responder a sus demandas antes de la medianoche, bajo amenaza de extender la protesta a otros puntos del territorio autónomo y a ocupar edificios gubernamentales.
La estrategia, de momento, es esperar. Instar a los participantes a volver a sus casas y ver si las protestas pierden fuelle por sí solas, como ha ocurrido con otros movimientos de indignados en otros puntos del planeta tras unas etapas iniciales de efervescencia.
Hasta cuándo estará dispuesto Pekín a esperar antes de mover ficha es la gran incógnita. El 20 de octubre comienza la reunión anual del plenario del Partido Comunista de China, una fecha clave en el calendario político del país y en el que se presentan las prioridades a desarrollar a lo largo del año.
El presidente chino, Xi Jinping, querrá llegar a esa reunión sin deberes pendientes. Y sin manifestaciones en un rincón del país que le hagan “perder cara”. Su preocupación no es tanto que las protestas puedan extenderse a otros lugares del país. Hong Kong y sus áreas circundantes, al fin y al cabo, siempre han servido de campo de experimentos económicos y políticos antes de que las autoridades chinas decidieran si exportarlos o no a otros territorios. La excolonia, levantada sobre una península y un archipiélago, está separada por una frontera del resto del país. Además, las informaciones que llegan a China sobre lo que ocurre en Hong Kong son muy limitadas, dado el control del poder central sobre los medios de comunicación chinos y sobre internet.
Pero una campaña de desobediencia civil prolongada en Pekín sí socavaría la imagen de Xi como líder completamente en control del país. Su campaña contra la corrupción ha causado malestar entre gente que, si bien no va a mover un dedo mientras Xi proyecte una imagen de líder duro, está a la espera de que el presidente cometa algún error.
Una opción que no parece completamente descabellada sería dejar caer al impopular Leung, una de las exigencias de los manifestantes, a cambio de la retirada de éstos. El movimiento prodemocraciapodría apuntarse un tanto momentáneo. Y aunque ha declarado públicamente que le apoya, Pekín se desharía de un dirigente que, con una serie de decisiones como el uso de la fuerza el pasado domingo, no solo ha demostrado poca cintura política sino también ha contribuido a dar alas al movimiento democrático en cada momento estratégico. La disputa de fondo, la reforma electoral y las aspiraciones autonómicas de los manifestantes, quedaría aplazada. Pero ambas partes ganarían tiempo.